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Housing forecasts

Based on extensive industry data

HIA is Australia’s leading forecaster of housing construction activity. Our forecasting methodology is a robust mix of the macroeconomic fundamentals driving supply and demand with real-world data collected from our membership base of over 40,000 industry professionals who are responsible for over 80% of Australia’s residential construction work.
Key inputs to HIA’s forecasting process include:

  • Economic growth
  • Interest rates
  • Employment growth
  • Consumer confidence
  • Level of oversupply or pent-up demand for housing
  • Interstate and overseas population movements
  • Household formation
  • Land availability
  • Taxation and regulation
  • Credit availability
  • Existing dwelling prices

Download HIA’s latest Forecasts: August 2017

HIA Dwelling Composition Forecasts

In recognising the changing new dwelling mix evident for Australia’s housing industry, a full suite of housing starts history and forecasts by distinct dwelling types is available to assist businesses to plan for the future. These dwelling types are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ ‘functional classification of buildings’:-
These classifications encompass:

  • Detached houses;
  • Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse or duplex, etc. with one storey;
  • Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse or duplex, etc. with two or more storeys;
  • Flat, unit or apartment in a building of one or two storeys;
  • Flat, unit or apartment in a building of three storeys;
  • Flat, unit or apartment in a building of four or more storeys;
  • Dwellings excluding new residential (typically called conversions).

Housing starts forecasts by these dwelling types are available on a national basis, and by state and territory, for the period 2006/07 to 2017/18.

The forecasts are available on an annual subscription bases which includes: four quarterly updates of all forecasts by new dwelling type in Excel format; a national dwelling composition forecast report with the first set of forecasts; long term forecasts of housing starts – total, detached houses, and total ‘multi-units’, national, state and territory – in excel format; and a long range housing projections report.

HIA Regional New Home Building Projections

HIA’s Regional New Home Building Commencements Projections are prepared quarterly and show the expected level of new home commencements in all regional markets across Australia. The Regional New Home Building Projections cover hundreds of regions around Australia as well as providing distinct forecasts for detached and attached building markets. This forecasting service provides a very useful guide for anybody involved in Australia’s residential construction industry that needs to know what is happening in specific geographic areas of a state or territory.

The Regional New Home Building Projections are particularly useful for any business operating in geographic markets where local conditions tend to differ from the more generalised state level conditions. The projections give an indication of the size of local markets, provide a point of reference for businesses estimating market share, enable benchmarking of business performance, and provide an excellent basis for businesses planning for the future.

The projections are provided with a five year outlook and include historical data dating back ten years.

Geographic Coverage

A detailed outline of the derivation of HIA’s regional forecasts is provided below.

The projections use the geographic areas defined by the Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS). This is the system used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics when reporting regional data.

The ASGS is a tiered classification where each state is divided up into a number of ‘statistical areas’. Within each state, it is first divided into a ‘Greater Capital City Statistical Area’, and the ‘rest of state’. The largest statistical areas within the ASGS are termed ‘Level 4 Statistical Areas’ (SA4), and each SA4 is divided up into a number of ‘Level 3 Statistical Areas’ (SA3).

State

Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GCCSA)

  • Level 4 Statistical Areas (SA4) within GCCSAs (representative of an area with 300,000 to 500,000 people)

  • Level 3 Statistical Areas (SA3) within SA4s (representative of an area with 30,000 to 130,000 people)

Rest of state

  • Level 4 Statistical Areas (SA4) outside a state’s GCCSA (representative of an area with 100,000 to 300,000 people)

  • Level 3 Statistical Areas (SA3) within SA4s (representative of an area with 30,000 to 130,000 people)

Regional projections go down to the SA3 level and are provided with a five year projection horizon presented in annualised terms (both calendar year and fiscal year). There are numerous instances where the ASGS statistical areas do not align exactly with local government or council boundaries. However the ASGS statistical areas still enable an accurate representation of building activity for any regional area around the country.

*Note that there is no official record of dwelling commencements below the regional level reported. The historical commencements data series is a modelled series derived from known residential building approvals and historic relationships between approvals and commencements.

Download HIA's Forecasts order form

Download HIA Forecasting Process

Extract of areas covered in regional forecasts

HIA State and National Outlook Report

The HIA Economics produces a quarterly overview of Australia's housing and renovation industry which includes the latest housing forecasts. This Outlook publication is an invaluable tool for business planning and for answering questions on quarterly trends and future key industry issues, such as how much home lending and building approval work is occurring.

Download the latest report and read examples from past editions.