Housing industry insights
Advocacy & policy
News & inspiration
Support & guidance
Member perks
Industry insurance
For your business
Apprentices
Building it right
Building materials & products
Managing your business
Managing your safety
Building your business
Other subjects
A rewarding career
Study with us
A job in the industry
Grow with us
Our podcasts
Our initiatives
Get involved
Awards
Awards winners
Industry events
Most popular products
Top categories
For your business
{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change location {{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change locationUpdated modelling: housing package estimated to cut 10,700 homes and push rents higher
Updated modelling: housing package estimated to cut 10,700 homes and push rents higher
Member and guest login
Enter your email and password to access secured content, members only resources and discount prices.
Did you become a member online? If not, you will need to activate your account to login.
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
Forgotten password
Need some help?
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
If the email address you have entered is registered, you will receive an email with further instructions.
Become part of the HIA community
Enables quick and easy registration for future events or learning and grants access to expert advice and valuable resources.
Create a guest account
Enter your details below and create a login
Send me exclusive tips, early access to new launches, and special offers. I can change my mind at any time.
By clicking Get started now you agree to the terms and conditions and privacy policy.
The modelling examines the cumulative impact of the Federal Budget’s primary housing tax reforms, including changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concession arrangements, together with the $2 billion Housing Support Program.
The updated modelling incorporates the additional measure agreed by Labor and the Greens during negotiations to secure passage of the broader package through Parliament. This measure prohibits self-managed super funds from using limited recourse borrowing arrangements to purchase ordinary residential investment property.
The analysis by Qaive and Tulipwood Economics now finds that, between 2026–27 and 2029–30, the combined housing measures are estimated to:
- reduce new dwelling starts by 10,700;
- increase rents by approximately $10 per week;
- reduce cumulative GDP by approximately $1.05 billion; and
- Construction jobs to fall by more than 4,700.
The findings represent a further deterioration from the modelling released immediately after the Budget, which already showed that the package would reduce housing construction, weaken economic activity, and place additional pressure on renters.
The updated figures reinforce a straightforward point: Australia cannot resolve its housing shortage through policies that make it harder to finance, build, and supply rental homes.
With the national 1.2 million-home target already under significant pressure, policy settings that are estimated to remove 10,700 new homes from the market move Australia further away from its housing objectives.
Housing policy must place supply first. This means accelerating planning and approvals, delivering enabling infrastructure, supporting construction capacity and skills, and maintaining the investment needed to provide homes for Australia’s growing population.
The housing industry remains concerned about the difference between the Government’s stated expectations and the findings of the independent modelling. The Government has claimed that its housing measures will deliver:
- around 75,000 additional owner-occupiers over the next decade;
- a rent increase of less than $2 per week for a household paying the current median rent;
- house-price growth around 2 per cent lower over several years than it would otherwise have been; and
- up to 30,000 additional homes over the decade when combined with its other supply measures.
The industry will continue to monitor market data and assess the effects of the reforms against the Government’s stated claims. As evidence becomes available, the industry will report on whether those claims are being borne out and hold the Government to account for the impacts of these changes.
A copy of the supplementary independent modelling can be found here.
For more information please contact:
Minimum trust tax a new tax on tradies
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) is warning that the Federal Government's proposed minimum tax on family trusts would amount to a new tax on tradies, builders and small family businesses, while creating costly business disruptions that would divert attention away from building the homes Australia desperately needs.
CBOS has split in two: who to contact now
From 1 October 2026, CBOS no longer exists as a single agency. The Tasmanian Government has split its work between two regulators, Building Standards Tasmania (BST) and Consumer Affairs Tasmania (CAT).
HIA remembers Kevin Brock
It is with great sadness that I advise of the passing of HIA Life Member Kevin Brock, aged 87.
Come walk a day in the shoes of small business
Before introducing another tax, another reporting requirement, another compliance obligation or another cost increase, HIA is calling on government ministers and policymakers to spend a day in the shoes of a small business owner.