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The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“The only exception to this low volume of sales is in Western Australia where it appears that house building will defy the efforts of the Reserve Bank,” added Mr Reardon.
“The volume of new home sales in Western Australia has increased since a trough in early 2023 resulting in sales in the three months to the end of November being 49.1 per cent higher than at the same time the previous year.
“The strength of sales in Western Australia is now flowing through to a modest rise in approvals. This is likely to see a steady flow of new home starts for Western Australia in 2024.
“Unfortunately, the ongoing acute shortage of skilled trades people in Western Australia will cap the growth in starts.
“This is a very unique outcome and will see Western Australia remain out of cycle with the rest of the country.
“Nationally, new home sales across Australia fell by 7.0 per cent in the month of November and remain at low volumes as rising interest rates continue to constrain house building.
“This will see the volume of homes commencing construction continue to contract in 2024 resulting in the lowest number of new house commencements since 2012,” concluded Mr Reardon.
New home sales across Australia in the three months to November 2023 decreased by 0.1 per cent compared to the same time in the previous year. By jurisdiction, sales in the same three-month period compared to the previous year fell in South Australia (-26.1 per cent), Victoria (-14.2 per cent) and NSW (-9.4 per cent). Sales in Queensland increased by 6.3 per cent compared to the previous year, while Western Australia saw a 49.1 per cent increase in the same period.
“Australia’s population reached 27.4 million by the end of 2024, up by 445,900 people, or 1.7 per cent for the year,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Tom Devitt.
The Tasmanian election that no-one wanted to have is in full swing, and while the limited campaign period is unlikely to provide the usual platform to promote key policies and reforms, HIA is calling on both major parties to prioritise housing policies given the significant challenges across the state.
“Our dated and complex planning system is littered with speed bumps that could easily be removed”, said Brad Armitage, HIA NSW Executive Director.
“The Victorian government’s proposal to update home building contract laws to make them fit for use in the 21st century is welcomed by HIA,” stated HIA Executive Director, Keith Ryan.