The recent events brought together industry leaders, government representatives and stakeholders to discuss economic conditions, housing forecasts and major infrastructure projects shaping the region’s future.

“The outlook reinforces both the opportunities and pressures facing the residential building sector,” said HIA Hunter Executive Director, Craig Jennion.

“The Hunter region continues to experience strong underlying demand for housing, with total dwelling approvals in the year to April 2026 increasing 27 per cent on the Central Coast and 6 per cent in the Hunter compared to the year prior.

“Despite this supply remains constrained by land availability, rising costs and regulatory complexity,” Mr Jennion said.

“The recently released HIA-Cotality Residential Land Report shows that the median lot price on the Central Coast in the December 2025 quarter was $610,000, a 13.5 per cent increase over the same quarter a year earlier. Similarly, the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie median price was $565,000, a 10.78 per cent increase over December 2024.

“This placed the neighbouring regions third and eight on the list of the most expensive regional markets nationwide. In contrast the Hunter Valley was relatively more affordable with a median of $410,000, 7 per cent higher than December 2024.”

Broader economic analysis presented at the breakfasts highlighted ongoing challenges in the housing market despite improving approval indicators.

Key matters outlined included:

• Dwelling investment forecast is expected to moderate over the coming years;
• Land prices continue to rise faster than incomes, constraining new supply;
• Construction costs and inflation remain a key concern for builders; and
• Interest rates and consumer confidence are continuing to impact demand.

“It’s clear that the building industry is at a turning point - rising costs, labour shortages, and shifting market conditions are reshaping the future of housing. 

“The data reinforced that housing affordability pressures are being driven largely by land supply constraints and regulatory settings, rather than demand alone.

“Without a coordinated approach to unlock land, streamline approvals and support industry capacity, we will continue to fall short of the homes Australia needs,” Mr Jennion said.

High Speed Rail to reshape housing and economic growth

A key focus of the events was the Australian Government’s proposed High Speed Rail program, with a particular focus on the Newcastle to Sydney corridor.

Attendees heard how the project is expected to transform connectivity between the Hunter, Central Coast and Sydney, delivering significant economic and housing benefits, including:

• Up to 160,000 new homes across the corridor by 2061;
• More than 99,000 new jobs, including 15,000 construction jobs a year during project delivery; and 
• Significant productivity and economic gains across regional NSW.

The High Speed Rail Authority outlined how improved connectivity will unlock more diverse and affordable housing options and support stronger regional communities.

“The Hunter region is well positioned for growth, particularly with transformational infrastructure like the High Speed Rail, but planning decisions made today will determine whether we can meet future demand.

“We have the opportunity to deliver meaningful improvements in housing supply and affordability, but it requires coordinated action across government and industry,” concluded Mr Jennion. 

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