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The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“Victorian policy uncertainty is adding to the national and international headwinds facing the industry,” added Mr Ryan.
“Home builders and buyers have already had their confidence shaken this year by three interest rate increases, fuel price surges and supply disruptions associated with the Iran War, and uncertainty surrounding the Australian government Budget’s housing tax changes.
“The Victorian government is compounding these headwinds with the rushed and last-minute implementation of new laws including the first resort home warranty scheme and new home building contract laws.
"Purchasing a home is the largest financial decision most households will make. When households are uncertain about the economic outlook, their employment prospects or future housing policy settings, they often delay that decision until there is greater clarity.
“Victoria’s home building recovery was one of the last in the country to start gaining momentum.
“The overall trajectory for home building in Victoria is still positive, on the back of ongoing strong population growth and low unemployment rates.
“Victoria’s population expanded by 1.7 per cent or nearly 120,000 people last year, the unemployment rate has remained below 5 per cent, and household sizes continue to shrink.
“This has supported housing demand in Victoria, with new home sales over the last three months still more than one-third (+36.0 per cent) greater than the same quarter a year earlier.
“The poor result for the month of May reflects a loss of confidence rather than a deterioration in the underlying demand for housing.
"At the same time, labour shortages, rising construction costs and limited access to shovel ready land continue to constrain the industry's ability to increase supply.
“Any extra policy-introduced obstacles this year are most unwelcome and policymakers need to work to reduce the costs of home building if Victoria’s housing needs are to be met,” concluded Mr Ryan.
“The strong pipeline of multi-unit dwelling approvals recorded during the second half of 2025 has begun to translate into construction activity,” said Geordan Murray, HIA Executive Director ACT & Southern NSW.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has welcomed Leader of the Opposition Angus Taylor and Shadow Minister for Skills and Training Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price to the HIA Skills Centre in Darwin this week to meet apprentices and discuss the workforce challenges confronting Australia's residential construction industry.
Tasmania's home building pipeline is filling up faster than it is emptying. Building approvals are well up over the past year, but the number of homes actually getting underway continues to lag.
“Australia needed to deliver an annual rate of 240,000 new homes to reach the 1.2 million new homes target, but in the 12 months to March, just 197,340 new homes commenced construction,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Tom Devitt.