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“Australia’s rental market remains extremely tight. The national residential vacancy rate is just 1.1 per cent, which is well below a balanced level,” said Ms Martin.
“There are even tighter conditions in Brisbane (0.8 per cent), Perth (0.6 per cent), Adelaide (0.8 per cent) and Hobart (0.5 per cent).
“Australia has an acute shortage of rental housing. Any policy that discourages investment in rental homes will only make conditions worse for renters.
“New independent economic analysis commissioned by HIA confirms that changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax would significantly reduce the supply of rental housing by discouraging new investment and slowing housing construction.
“The analysis shows that removing negative gearing would result in tens of thousands fewer homes being built, reduced construction employment and higher rents as rental supply tightens further.
“Removing negative gearing, with minimal grandfathering, would lead to a 46,000 reduction in homes built, a loss of over 4,300 construction jobs and a fall in GDP of $2.3 billion.
“It also finds that changes to capital gains tax would reduce new rental investment and place additional upward pressure on rents over time.
“Removing the CGT discount, with minimal grandfathering, would lead to a 33,000 reduction in homes built, a loss of over 3,000 construction jobs and a fall in GDP of $3 billion.
“Combined, these tax changes would have a compounding effect, fewer rental homes, lower housing construction and higher rents paid by tenants.
"Renter affordability is ultimately about supply. When fewer rental homes are built, renters face higher rents and fewer choices.
“Private investors supply around nine in ten rental homes across Australia, the majority of whom are small-scale, mum and dad investors. Stable and predictable tax settings play a critical role in supporting the ongoing supply of rental housing, particularly new homes entering the market.
“HIA has consistently warned that Australia is not building enough homes to meet demand. Reducing incentives for rental housing investment will only widen this gap.
"If governments want to help renters, the focus must be on increasing housing supply. Targeting rental housing investment with new taxes will make the rental crisis worse, not better," concluded Ms Martin.
The Northern Territory's housing market continues to outperform many parts of the country, with strong dwelling price growth, rising building approvals and sustained investment activity demonstrating confidence in the Territory's future.
HIA commented on the Explanation of Intended Effect for Standard and model conditions of consent (the EIE). It is understood the EIE explains the proposed amendments to State Environmental Planning Policy 2021 that will give effect to consistent conditions of consent for residential development across the state.
Home building approvals in Tasmania have climbed over the past year, though the numbers remain well below the level needed to meet demand.
The latest building approvals data shows the ACT residential building market remains subdued, with detached housing continuing to struggle and the momentum that emerged in the apartment market during 2025 now showing signs of fading.