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The ABS today released its building activity data for the June quarter 2025. This data provides estimates of the value of building work and number of dwellings commenced, completed and under construction across Australia and its states and territories.
“This decline in house building, combined with a moderation in multi-unit commencements, saw Victoria start construction on just 13,970 new homes in the latest quarter, a long way down from the 20,000 homes target the Victorian government has set for itself,” added Mr Ryan.
“There were previously pockets of growth in certain home building sectors, such as higher-end custom and bespoke builds and knockdown-rebuilds, but this cycle looks to have ended without volume builders seeing an uptick in demand to pick up the slack.
“Recent interest rate cuts from the RBA and the Australian government’s removal of LMI requirements for first home buyers look to be bringing more buyers back to the market but it will be a few months before this translates into construction activity on the ground.
“Since the RBA’s rate hiking cycle, Victoria has been unable to mount a strong and sustained recovery.
“Relatively weaker population and labour market dynamics, expensive residential land and increasing state government taxes and regulations on home building, have held back the state while markets like Western Australia, Queensland and South Australia race ahead.
“Deeper and wider policy reforms are needed to reduce the taxes, costs and restrictions on home builders, home buyers and home investors, if the Victorian government wants to meet its housing targets.
“All forms of housing need to be supported, including house and land packages in greenfield areas, medium density units and townhouses in middle ring suburbs, and high-rise apartments in inner city and activity centres,” concluded Mr Ryan.
Workplace laws are set for more changes in 2026.
Australia’s residential building industry has entered the new year with confidence still on shaky ground for small businesses as rising costs and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.
Tasmania’s housing market slowed in November, with building approvals falling sharply compared to October. Approvals for new homes dropped almost 20 per cent, and even after seasonal adjustment, the decline was 5.8 per cent.
Australia’s home building industry is expected to strengthen through 2026, supported by gradually improving building approvals and a recovery in demand, but the pace of growth will ultimately depend on how quickly interest rates can fall further, according to the Housing Industry Association.