{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change location {{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change locationGentle landing forecast for housing super cycle
Gentle landing forecast for housing super cycle
Member and guest login
Enter your email and password to access secured content, members only resources and discount prices.
Did you become a member online? If not, you will need to activate your account to login.
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
Forgotten password
Need some help?
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
If the email address you have entered is registered, you will receive an email with further instructions.
Become part of the HIA community
Enables quick and easy registration for future events or learning and grants access to expert advice and valuable resources.
Create a guest account
Enter your details below and create a login
“This has driven a ‘super cycle’ of housing activity across Australia that will ensure that the industry continues to operate at capacity through 2022. Detached home building activity remains well above historical peaks.
“The key feature that will mark the turning point in this cycle will be a rise in interest rates. When interest rates inevitably increase, it will reduce households borrowing power. Slower house price growth will see banks increasingly reluctant to lend for the construction of a new home and have a negative effect on consumer confidence.
“Regardless of the timing of an increase in the official cash rate, effective interest rates have started to rise and will lead to the same outcomes.
“Inflationary pressures are very evident in the home building industry where the cost of land, labour and materials are increasing at rapidly. These rising costs have not yet had a significant adverse impact on demand for new homes, as established house price growth has exceeded these cost increases.
As established house price growth slows and access to finance tightens, these rising costs will further impede demand. The adverse impact of slower population growth for two years will also emerge as weaker demand for new detached homes from 2023.
“Despite this slowing in demand for new homes over the coming years, if the national economy remains strong and unemployment low, the bottom of this next cycle will not be sharp, deep or sustained.
“It is expected that the number of detached homes commencing construction will slow through 2022/23 and reach pre-COVID levels at the end of 2023.
“In contrast to the detached forecast, multi-unit starts are expected to continue to increase over the next two years, but remain below pre-COVID levels of activity,”
The affordability constraints in detached housing are expected to push some households into townhouses and apartments. A return of migration will assist in offsetting the impact of a rise in interest rates for multi-unit construction,” concluded Mr. Reardon.
HIA released its economic and industry Outlook Report for Australia today. The Outlook Report includes updated forecasts for new home building and renovations activity nationally and for each of the eight states and territories.
For more information please contact:
Potential amendments to the Biodiversity Conservation Regulation 2017
HIA has consulted with its members who are active in land development in Regional NSW to provide comments on the Consultation paper and those comments are presented in this submission letter.
Plans for Independent Planning Advisory Service shelved
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has welcomed the news that the ACT Government has abandoned plans to introduce the Independent Planning Advisory Service (IPAS).
Home building materials prices still slower than CPI
“Home building materials have continued to experience only modest cost increases, up by 1.6 per cent in the 2024/25 financial year,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Maurice Tapang.
Productivity Commission backs HIA calls for major regulation overhaul
“Today’s interim report from the Productivity Commission overwhelmingly backs what HIA has long been saying - that the regulatory burden on businesses is getting worse in this country and there is need for a major overhaul on the approach to regulation,” said HIA Managing Director, Jocelyn Martin.