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$vuetify.icons.faPhone1300 650 620

Home building in Victoria to remain at capacity for the next year

Media release

Home building in Victoria to remain at capacity for the next year

Media release
“Rising interest rates can cause building commencements to slow within six months, but in this cycle, the lag will be significantly longer,” stated HIA Regional Executive Director, Fiona Nield.

“Rising interest rates can cause building commencements to slow within six months, but in this cycle, the lag will be significantly longer,” stated HIA Regional Executive Director, Fiona Nield.

HIA released its economic and industry Outlook Report for Australia today. The Outlook Report includes updated forecasts for new home building and renovations activity nationally and for each of the eight states and territories.

“There were almost 50 per cent more detached homes under construction in Victoria at the end of 2021 than pre-COVID. There are also more homes approved and waiting commencement than in almost 20 years,” added Ms Nield.

“With this elevated volume of homes in the pipeline, the number of homes under construction will remain at this high level next year and potentially into 2024.

“This strong ongoing demand has occurred at the same time as significant constraints on materials, land and labour, leading to rapid increases in the cost of construction. This is putting enormous pressure on Victorian builders.

“The boom in demand for new homes is being experienced in all states and territories and can also be observed across many countries as households seek additional space, given all the extra time they have spent at home. Consequently, global demands have seen prices for some key building materials rise significantly.

“The ABS estimates that the cost of home building materials, not including the cost of labour, increased by 15.4 per cent in the year to March 2022. On the ground, the increases are higher still. This is the fastest annual increase in the official estimate of home building materials since 1980 and they are still rising.

“The United States has seen an almost identical cost increase with material costs for residential construction estimated to have increased by 21.2 per cent over the year to April 2022 compared to the previous year.

“An acute rental shortage has also seen strengthening demand for multi-units. A further deterioration in affordability will see demand continue to shift in favour of multi-units and there are also early signs that migration is returning. These factors will more than offset the adverse impact of rising interest rates on this sector of the housing market.

“With detached home building in Victoria remaining at capacity potentially into 2024 and the volume of multi-unit commencements increasing, the shortage of building materials, land and labour will continue to be the main pinch point for the industry,” concluded Ms Nield.

HIA forecasts: Building activity pipeline - VIC houses
*HIA’s National and State Outlooks are Australia’s most comprehensive housing report card, encompassing renovations activity, new home building, policy updates, global and domestic economic analysis, and dedicated state and territory housing databases. For further information or for copies of the publication (media only) please contact: Kirsten Lewis on k.lewis@hia.com.au.

For more information please contact:

Fiona Nield

Regional Executive Director - Victoria

Thomas Devitt

Economist
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