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The ABS released the Lending to Households and Businesses data for June 2022 today. The data provides statistics on housing finance commitments.
“Despite a slowing in recent months, lending for the year was still up by 21.2 per cent on the previous year – also a record high – and up by 81.1 per cent on pre-pandemic levels,” added Mr Devitt.
“Every segment of the housing market remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“There were over $62 billion worth of loans to first home buyers in 2021/22, up by 69.1 per cent on 2018/19 levels. Loans to other owner-occupiers were up by 73.7 per cent and investor loans were double (+101.2 per cent).
“There was also $6.6 billion worth of lending for renovations in 2021/22, up by 165.0 per cent on three years earlier.
“The result is a record number of houses currently under construction, almost 80 per cent greater than pre-pandemic levels. There is also a large number of projects approved but not commenced, and sales have remained strong to the end of June. This will ensure that home building activity and demand for skilled workers will remain strong throughout 2023.
“The tightening of the cash rate in recent months will, however, bring this record-setting cycle to an end.
“The adverse impact of the increase in the cash rate will compound the increase in the cost of building a new home and further slow building activity.
“The industry is reporting a slowing in the number of groups visiting display sites in recent weeks which could result in fewer new home sales in the second half of 2022.
“Given the large volume of work under construction and approved but not commenced, there will be a significant lag between the increase in the cash rate and an adverse impact on new home construction.
“The long lead times in this current cycle will hide the impact of rate rises and risk the RBA over shooting with unnecessary rate increases,” concluded Mr Devitt.
“The influx of overseas migrants into Australia in the last couple of years has added significant demand for new homes. Despite this, skilled trades in the residential sector are not recognised on the Australian government’s Skills Priority List,” stated HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt.
HIA has released its Housing Scorecard. Once again Victoria is underperforming. With the Victorian State Budget next month there is also a risk that unnecessary tax increases will entrench this poor outcome.
“Today’s CPI figures are likely to see interest rates remain high for longer as inflation becomes increasingly embedded in the economy,” stated HIA’s Chief Economist, Tim Reardon
“South Australia has once again taken out the top spot in HIA’s Housing Scorecard,” stated Stephen Knight, HIA Executive Director.