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The ABS released the Lending to Households and Businesses data for July 2022 today. The data provides sobering statistics on housing finance commitments.
“The rise in the cost of borrowing is compounding the impact of the rapid increase in the cost of building a new home that occurred due to the constraints on global supply chains,” added Mr Devitt.
“Declines were seen across all segments of the market, led by investors.
“The value of loans to investors fell by 11.2 per cent to their weakest month in over a year. This was followed by a 9.5 per cent decline for first home buyers, to their lowest level in over two years, and a 6.3 per cent decline for other owner occupiers. There was also a 3.3 per cent decline in lending for renovations.
“These declines in home lending are consistent with other leading indicators.
“New home sales across Australia declined by 13.1 per cent in July, following even earlier reports from the industry of a slowing in the number of groups visiting display sites. This will see weaker sales volumes in the second half of 2022.
“If these trends are sustained, which is expected, then the 1.75 per cent increase in the cash rate so far will have brought this pandemic building boom to an end.
“There remains a significant volume of work under construction and approved-but-not-yet-commenced that will provide a buffer for the industry and ensure building activity and demand for skilled trades remains exceptionally strong through the rest of 2022 and into 2023.
“There is a risk that this volume of ongoing work will obscure the adverse impact of rising interest rates,” concluded Mr Devitt.
HIA is aware that over the past week members have been receiving a range of advice from suppliers on cost increases to several building materials and other related construction equipment such as skips, plant and equipment hire.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has backed Brisbane City Council’s ‘More Homes, Sooner’ plan, warning that community opposition risks undermining much-needed housing supply and worsening affordability pressures across the city.
HIA is aware that industry is raising concerns about price increases to fuel and materials arising from the conflict in the Middle East. To assist members to account and respond to price increases we have prepared information on dealing with cost uncertainties and fluctuations under HIA contracts.
This opinion piece from HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon responds to the Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review and discusses how the cumulative tightening of macroprudential settings has increasingly locked first home buyers out of the market.