{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change location {{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change locationRBA risks overshooting on rates
RBA risks overshooting on rates
Member and guest login
Enter your email and password to access secured content, members only resources and discount prices.
Did you become a member online? If not, you will need to activate your account to login.
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
Forgotten password
Need some help?
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
If the email address you have entered is registered, you will receive an email with further instructions.
Become part of the HIA community
Enables quick and easy registration for future events or learning and grants access to expert advice and valuable resources.
Create a guest account
Enter your details below and create a login
Send me exclusive tips, early access to new launches, and special offers. I can change my mind at any time.
By clicking Get started now you agree to the terms and conditions and privacy policy.
“By bringing the cash rate target from its emergency policy setting of 0.1 per cent in May to the new setting of 2.35 per cent, the RBA has undertaken its sharpest hiking cycle in almost 30 years,” added Mr Devitt.
“The RBA’s intention is to bring Australian inflation back to its 2-3 per cent target. But the nature of the current cycle means the RBA risks pushing the cash rate too high.
“At the start of this tightening cycle there was a record volume of building work underway and a significant volume of work still to commence construction. This is providing the building industry and the wider economy with a buffer against the full impacts of these rate increases.
“In a typical cycle the lag from an increase in the cash rate to a slowing in home building could be as little as six months, but in this cycle, the lag will be more than 12 months.
“In July, new home sales declined by 13.1 per cent and home lending declined for all market segments – renovators, investors and owner occupiers, including first home buyers.
“The significant pipeline of work still to complete heading into this cycle will ensure building activity and demand for skilled trades remains exceptionally strong through the rest of 2022 and into 2023.
“However, the rise in the cash rate is compounding the impact of the rapid increase in the cost of building a new home that occurred due to the constraints on global supply chains.
The rising cost of construction would, by itself, have slowed building activity.
“It will not be until mid-2023 that the effects of the first rise in the cash rate adversely impact the volume of work on the ground. Subsequent increases in the cash rate will have exacerbated this slow down.
“With long lead times in this current cycle there is a greater risk that the impact on unemployment of a rapid rise in the cash rate will be obscured and that the RBA will overshoot with unnecessary rate increases,” concluded Mr Devitt.
Housing Loans, by Market Segment, $M
For more information please contact:
Key air conditioning considerations for builders and clients
Discover the key air conditioning considerations for builders and homeowners, including system selection, energy efficiency, zoning, comfort, installation planning and long-term performance in new homes.
HIA welcomes the expansion of the NSW Government’s Pre-sale Finance Guarantee
“The Housing Industry Association welcomes today’s announcement by the NSW Government of the expansion of the Pre-sale Finance Guarantee” said Brad Armitage, Executive Director NSW.
Infrastructure remains the barrier to increased housing supply
“Residential land prices increased by 1.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2025 to be 9.4 per cent higher over the year, increasing almost three times faster than consumer prices over the same period,” stated HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt.
HIA Values statement for the residential building industry
This Values Statement sets out HIA's position in relation to the core beliefs and principles that should guide the residential construction industry, shaping how it operates, conducts business, and interacts with all stakeholders.