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“By bringing the cash rate target from its emergency policy setting of 0.1 per cent in May to the new setting of 2.35 per cent, the RBA has undertaken its sharpest hiking cycle in almost 30 years,” added Mr Devitt.
“The RBA’s intention is to bring Australian inflation back to its 2-3 per cent target. But the nature of the current cycle means the RBA risks pushing the cash rate too high.
“At the start of this tightening cycle there was a record volume of building work underway and a significant volume of work still to commence construction. This is providing the building industry and the wider economy with a buffer against the full impacts of these rate increases.
“In a typical cycle the lag from an increase in the cash rate to a slowing in home building could be as little as six months, but in this cycle, the lag will be more than 12 months.
“In July, new home sales declined by 13.1 per cent and home lending declined for all market segments – renovators, investors and owner occupiers, including first home buyers.
“The significant pipeline of work still to complete heading into this cycle will ensure building activity and demand for skilled trades remains exceptionally strong through the rest of 2022 and into 2023.
“However, the rise in the cash rate is compounding the impact of the rapid increase in the cost of building a new home that occurred due to the constraints on global supply chains.
The rising cost of construction would, by itself, have slowed building activity.
“It will not be until mid-2023 that the effects of the first rise in the cash rate adversely impact the volume of work on the ground. Subsequent increases in the cash rate will have exacerbated this slow down.
“With long lead times in this current cycle there is a greater risk that the impact on unemployment of a rapid rise in the cash rate will be obscured and that the RBA will overshoot with unnecessary rate increases,” concluded Mr Devitt.
With the delay to decisions on the content of NCC 2025, the ABCB has published a further amendment to the current NCC 2022 which applies from 29 July 2025. The purpose of this minor amendment is to align the NCC with recent changes to the Premises Standards which apply to Class 3 to 9 public buildings, common areas of Class 2 apartment buildings and short-term accommodation
“HIA alongside a group of construction leaders and Standards Australia came together today at Parliament House, to present a united front in getting easier access to Australian Standards in the hands of those who need them most,” said HIA Managing Director, Jocelyn Martin.
HIA has made a comprehensive suite of submissions to the Productivity Commission ahead of the upcoming Treasurer’s Economic Reform Roundtable on 19-21 August.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) is calling on Treasurer Jim Chalmers to put housing at the centre of the upcoming Economic Reform Roundtable.