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The ABS released the Lending to Households and Businesses data for September 2022 today. The data provides sobering statistics on housing finance commitments.
“The total value of housing loans also fell by a further 8.2 per cent in September, to be 18.5 per cent lower than at the same time in the previous year,” added Mr Ward.
“The RBA’s tightening is weighing heavily on demand for housing and the full impact will not emerge until the second half of 2023,” stated HIA’s Senior Economist Nick Ward.
“This slowing in housing finance data is consistent with other leading indications, such as HIA’s New Home Sales Survey, which have fallen more than 15% in the September quarter.
“If these trends are sustained, which is expected, then the 2.75 per cent increase in the cash rate so far will have brought this boom to an end.
“There is still a significant volume of work under construction that is sustaining employment across the economy. This is helping to keep the unemployment rate at exceptionally low levels. When this pool of work is completed, the full impact of this rate rising cycle on employment will emerge.
“There is a risk that this volume of work on the ground is obscuring the adverse impact of rising interest rates.
“These treacherous lags that characterise this housing cycle could result in the RBA weighing too heavily on households and businesses and jeopardising the housing industry’s future soft landing. Patience is required to see the full effect of rate increases to date,” concluded Mr Ward.
“Of the estimated 34,000 apprentices who will commence a construction trade apprenticeship this year, we expect fewer than 20,000 will make it through to complete their qualification. This must improve,” stated Geordan Murray, Executive Director - Future Workforce.
The Victorian Government has extended its stamp duty concession for off-the-plan properties, providing continued financial relief for homebuyers. This initiative aims to support the housing market and make home ownership more accessible.
HIA provided a submission to the National Policy Competition analysis 2025.
As West Australia’s residential building industry continues to grow and evolve, it’s important we take a step back and look at something we often overlook - our mental health.