Address
{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change location Address
{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.text}} {{region}} Change location{{propApi.title}}
{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change locationHouse building set for worst year in a decade
House building set for worst year in a decade
Member and guest login
Enter your email and password to access secured content, members only resources and discount prices.
Did you become a member online? If not, you will need to activate your account to login.
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
Forgotten password
Need some help?
If you are having problems logging in, please call HIA helpdesk on 1300 650 620 during business hours.
If the email address you have entered is registered, you will receive an email with further instructions.
Become part of the HIA community
Enables quick and easy registration for future events or learning and grants access to expert advice and valuable resources.
Create a guest account
Enter your details below and create a login
“The number of detached houses commencing construction is set to decline this year and next to its lowest level since 2012,” stated HIA Chief Economist, Tim Reardon.
Tuesday, 21st February 2023
HIA released its economic and industry Outlook Report today. The Outlook Report includes updated forecasts for new home building and renovations activity nationally and for each of the eight states and territories.
“The 2022 cash rate increases were sufficient to bring this building boom to an end and further increases in 2023 will accelerate this downturn,” added Mr Reardon.
“There was a large volume of work in the pipeline when rates started to rise in May 2022, and there remains a record number of homes under construction, but this will shrink quickly as market confidence continues to fade.
“Lending for the purchase or construction of a new home had already fallen to its lowest level since 2012 by the end of 2022, and the full impact of last year’s rate increases is still to flow through to households.
“This will see the number of detached housing starts fall below 100,000 starts per year for the first time in a decade to just 96,300 in 2024. This is a very rapid slowdown from the 149,000 starts in 2021.
“Multi-unit starts were impaired last year by the acute shortage of labour and materials which has seen many projects postponed until 2023. Unlike detached home construction, the number of multi-units commencing construction should increase as the acute shortage of housing, returning migrants and students, and affordability constraints continue to drive demand for housing.
“It is unfortunate that the RBA appears set to repeat the cycle the building industry experienced after the GFC. Following an initial cut to rates, the RBA then increased rates quickly, bringing the building industry to a stall, before being forced to cut rates again to avoid adverse impacts on the wider economy.
“It is also unfortunate that higher rates will further impair the ability of the market to respond to the acute shortage of housing stock.
“One policy tool at the disposal of government is to ease the barriers put in place in recent years that restrict first home buyer access to a mortgage. Over a decade of macro prudential restrictions have seen borrowing for those with less than a 20 per cent deposit become increasingly expensive. This inevitably leads to banks increasingly lending to those that already own a home.
“Easing the barriers to home ownership need not undermine the efforts of the RBA or the government to reduce inflationary pressures,” concluded Mr Reardon
“The 2022 cash rate increases were sufficient to bring this building boom to an end and further increases in 2023 will accelerate this downturn,” added Mr Reardon.
“There was a large volume of work in the pipeline when rates started to rise in May 2022, and there remains a record number of homes under construction, but this will shrink quickly as market confidence continues to fade.
“Lending for the purchase or construction of a new home had already fallen to its lowest level since 2012 by the end of 2022, and the full impact of last year’s rate increases is still to flow through to households.
“This will see the number of detached housing starts fall below 100,000 starts per year for the first time in a decade to just 96,300 in 2024. This is a very rapid slowdown from the 149,000 starts in 2021.
“Multi-unit starts were impaired last year by the acute shortage of labour and materials which has seen many projects postponed until 2023. Unlike detached home construction, the number of multi-units commencing construction should increase as the acute shortage of housing, returning migrants and students, and affordability constraints continue to drive demand for housing.
“It is unfortunate that the RBA appears set to repeat the cycle the building industry experienced after the GFC. Following an initial cut to rates, the RBA then increased rates quickly, bringing the building industry to a stall, before being forced to cut rates again to avoid adverse impacts on the wider economy.
“It is also unfortunate that higher rates will further impair the ability of the market to respond to the acute shortage of housing stock.
“One policy tool at the disposal of government is to ease the barriers put in place in recent years that restrict first home buyer access to a mortgage. Over a decade of macro prudential restrictions have seen borrowing for those with less than a 20 per cent deposit become increasingly expensive. This inevitably leads to banks increasingly lending to those that already own a home.
“Easing the barriers to home ownership need not undermine the efforts of the RBA or the government to reduce inflationary pressures,” concluded Mr Reardon
HIA Forecasts - Australia
Get yours today!
HIA State and National Outlook reports
A comprehensive, easy to follow and up-to-date account of the performance of Australia’s residential construction industry for your state or territory.
For more information please contact:
Latest articles
12 Jun
Researchers give pre-apprenticeship training the nod
“Of the estimated 34,000 apprentices who will commence a construction trade apprenticeship this year, we expect fewer than 20,000 will make it through to complete their qualification. This must improve,” stated Geordan Murray, Executive Director - Future Workforce.
12 Jun
Stamp duty tax cuts extended what you need to know
The Victorian Government has extended its stamp duty concession for off-the-plan properties, providing continued financial relief for homebuyers. This initiative aims to support the housing market and make home ownership more accessible.
11 Jun
National Policy Competition Analysis
HIA provided a submission to the National Policy Competition analysis 2025.
11 Jun
Prioritising Mental Health in WA residential building industry
As West Australia’s residential building industry continues to grow and evolve, it’s important we take a step back and look at something we often overlook - our mental health.