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The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“Sales in the month of February rose by 14.3 per cent compared to the previous month but remain exceptionally low,” added Mr Reardon.
“Sales of new homes stalled late in 2022 as the adverse impact of the RBA’s rate increases continue to erode market confidence.
“When the cash rate started to rise in May 2022 there was a very large pool of work to commence construction. This pool of work yet to commence is shrinking quickly as new sales remain very low and the number of new projects entering the pipeline falls.
“Tighter access to finance and a higher cash rate is seeing many new home buyers withdraw from the market. Customers that received approval to build a new home early in 2022 are cancelling these projects as the cost-of-living bites and banks withdraw financing.
“Without an improvement in access to finance, or a lowering of rates, the number of new homes commencing construction will slow later this year.
“The RBA isn’t going to return the economy to stability by putting the building industry through boom-and-bust cycles,” concluded HIA’s Chief Economist, Tim Reardon.
For the three months to February 2023, compared to the same period the previous year, new home sales in New South Wales were down by 76.6 per cent, followed by Queensland (-51.2 per cent), Victoria (-42.3 per cent), Western Australia (-14.8 per cent) and South Australia (-6.0 per cent).
HIA is aware that over the past week members have been receiving a range of advice from suppliers on cost increases to several building materials and other related construction equipment such as skips, plant and equipment hire.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has backed Brisbane City Council’s ‘More Homes, Sooner’ plan, warning that community opposition risks undermining much-needed housing supply and worsening affordability pressures across the city.
HIA is aware that industry is raising concerns about price increases to fuel and materials arising from the conflict in the Middle East. To assist members to account and respond to price increases we have prepared information on dealing with cost uncertainties and fluctuations under HIA contracts.
This opinion piece from HIA Chief Economist Tim Reardon responds to the Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Review and discusses how the cumulative tightening of macroprudential settings has increasingly locked first home buyers out of the market.