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The HIA New Home Sales report – a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states – is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“The latest decline leaves sales in the first three months of the year down by 45.9 per cent compared to the same quarter last year,” added Mr Devitt.
“Compounding the decline in sales is the rise in projects being cancelled.
“The cancellation rate increased in March to 30.5 per cent. This means for every three new building contracts that are signed, one sale from a previous month is cancelled. Many builders have reported ‘negative sales’ over recent months. The last time the rate was near this high was the start of the pandemic.
“The RBA’s rate increases last year and this year will continue to hold down new sales and cause further cancellations as finance becomes unobtainable for an increasing number of buyers.
“The significant increase in the cost of land and construction across all jurisdictions over the past two years is compounding the impact of higher interest rates. The additional costs of compliance with the National Construction Code, that come into effect this year, will further increase the cost of new home construction and dampen demand further.
“The combination of low sales volumes and rising cancellations of existing projects will hollow out the pipeline of building work over the coming months,” concluded Mr Devitt.
The largest declines in sales in March compared to the previous month were seen in Victoria (-23.4 per cent) and South Australia (-22.4 per cent), followed by Queensland (-2.2 per cent), while increases were seen in New South Wales (+1.7 per cent) and Western Australia (+22.5 per cent).
Over the last year, New South Wales has driven the declines, with sales in the first three months of 2023 down by 75.9 per cent on the same quarter last year. This was followed by Queensland (-54.3 per cent), Victoria (-43.4 per cent) and South Australia (-13.7 per cent). Western Australia was the only large state to see an increase over the last year, up by 1.0 per cent.
“There were 31,780 loans issued to first home buyers in the final quarter of 2025, up by 6.8 per cent on the previous quarter, and the strongest performance in almost four years,” stated HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt.
The HIA 2026 Small Business Conditions survey shows that while small builders remain resilient, they are facing significant challenges heading into 2026.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has reaffirmed its support for the Tasmanian Government’s 2025 decision to expand Greater Hobart’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), noting that recent commentary underscores the scale of Tasmania’s housing challenge and the urgent need to bring more land forward for new homes.
Australia’s small businesses are warning that housing supply will continue to fall short of targets unless all tiers of government urgently address rising regulatory costs, planning delays and workforce shortages, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA) 2026 Small Business Conditions Report.