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“Today’s decision marks the 12th rate increase since the RBA began this cycle in May 2022 and the impact of these early rate increases are only just emerging in official data.
“This downturn in leading indicators includes:
“There was a large pool of work yet to commence construction in May 2022 which has obscured the adverse impact of rate rises to date. The lags in this cycle are significantly longer than previous cycles.
“The impact of rate increases to date are starting to emerge in official housing data, but it will take a further 12 months for this slowdown to be apparent in work on the ground, and the wider economy.
“This will see the number of homes commencing construction slow, as population growth accelerates.
“In addition to the increase in rates, home building is also set to decline as regulatory costs continue to add to the cost of new home construction. If governments continue to make building new homes more expensive, fewer new homes will be built.
“The RBA’s recognition that the housing issue is due to a failure to build enough homes is a welcome move, but it remains to be seen how this would influence future cash rate decisions.
“It also highlights that interest rates are a very blunt and ineffective tool in managing inflation and the wider economy. Fiscal policy is a far more effective and precise tool,” concluded Mr Reardon.
“Australia’s population reached 27.4 million by the end of 2024, up by 445,900 people, or 1.7 per cent for the year,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Tom Devitt.
The Tasmanian election that no-one wanted to have is in full swing, and while the limited campaign period is unlikely to provide the usual platform to promote key policies and reforms, HIA is calling on both major parties to prioritise housing policies given the significant challenges across the state.
“Our dated and complex planning system is littered with speed bumps that could easily be removed”, said Brad Armitage, HIA NSW Executive Director.
“The Victorian government’s proposal to update home building contract laws to make them fit for use in the 21st century is welcomed by HIA,” stated HIA Executive Director, Keith Ryan.