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$vuetify.icons.faPhone1300 650 620

No justification for a rate rise

Media release

No justification for a rate rise

Media release
“The number of loans issued for the construction or purchase of new homes are at their lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008,” stated HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt.

The ABS released the Lending to Households and Businesses data for August 2023 today, which provides statistics on housing finance commitments. It also released its monthly building approvals data for the same month for detached houses and multi-units covering all states and territories.

“Housing and finance data continues to be weighed down by the interest rate increases that the RBA commenced more than a year earlier,” added Mr Devitt.

“In the three months to August 2023 lending for the purchase or construction of a new homes was 30.3 per cent lower than at the same quarter a year earlier.

“Despite a small rise in building approvals in the month of August, building approvals remain 17.5 per cent lower in the latest three months compared to a year earlier. This includes a 15.8 per cent decline in detached houses and a 20.3 per cent decline in multi-units.

“This decline in building activity is in contrast to the low level of unemployment and strong population growth. 

“The impact of the RBA’s tightening cycle is not expected to produce a trough in new house commencements until the second half of 2024.

“Any further increases in interest rates will deepen and prolong this trough,” concluded Mr Devitt.

In original terms, the total number of loans for the purchase of construction of new homes in the three months to August 2023 declined in all jurisdictions compared to the same quarterly period a year earlier, led by the Australian Capital Territory (-76.5 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-70.1 per cent), and followed by South Australia (-36.0 per cent), New South Wales (-32.0 per cent), Victoria (-29.1 per cent), Queensland (-28.5 per cent), Tasmania (-27.3 per cent) and Western Australia (-18.9 per cent).

In seasonally adjusted terms, building approvals in the three months to August 2023, compared to the same quarterly period a year earlier, declined in New South Wales (-25.7 per cent), followed by Tasmania (-25.5 per cent), Western Australia (-24.5 per cent), Queensland (-19.8 per cent), South Australia (-9.6 per cent) and Victoria (-8.0 per cent). In original terms, the Northern Territory also declined (-54.1 per cent), while the Australian Capital Territory saw the only increase (+0.3 per cent).

Lending for purchase and construction of a new home

Source: HIA

Tim Reardon

Chief Economist

Thomas Devitt

Economist
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