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The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“The spike in sales that emerged in September, caused by regulatory changes in NSW, was more than reversed in October,” added Mr Devitt.
“Buyers rushed to get ahead of NSW regulations that will add significantly to the cost of a new home, causing an extraordinary spike in sales in the state in September.
“This drawing forward of home purchasing decisions is anticipated to continue weighing on sales over coming months.
“The sales performance in October was consistent with the weakness observed throughout 2023 and will see new house starts continue to decline.
“Interest rates continue to weigh on confidence, with the industry headed for its weakest year of new house commencements in over a decade.
“The RBA’s November decision to continue the steepest hiking cycle in a generation, risks further deepening and prolonging this trough in home building.
“This coincides with Australia’s deepening housing crisis, with record population growth and acute rental shortages reflecting the need for a strong pipeline of new housing supply.
“Increasing the supply of homes will require policymakers to help lower the cost of building. This means reforms to tax, land release and planning, and loosening macro-prudential rules that squeeze out owner-occupiers and investors alike,” concluded Mr Devitt.
New home sales across Australia in the three months to October fell by 5.8 per cent compared to the same quarter in the previous year. By jurisdiction, sales were similarly down in South Australia (-20.1 per cent), New South Wales (-17.4 per cent), Queensland (-15.0 per cent) and Victoria (-13.8 per cent). Sales in Western Australia increased by 42.2 per cent compared to the same three-month period in 2022.
Australia’s residential building industry has entered the new year with confidence still on shaky ground for small businesses as rising costs and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.
Tasmania’s housing market slowed in November, with building approvals falling sharply compared to October. Approvals for new homes dropped almost 20 per cent, and even after seasonal adjustment, the decline was 5.8 per cent.
Australia’s home building industry is expected to strengthen through 2026, supported by gradually improving building approvals and a recovery in demand, but the pace of growth will ultimately depend on how quickly interest rates can fall further, according to the Housing Industry Association.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has today expressed concern that the Tasmanian Government appears to have walked away from a key election commitment to accelerate the finalisation of Regional Land Use Strategies.