In a dire situation, where Queensland needs more homes built than ever, the peak home building body predicts dwelling commencements in Queensland will bottom out in 2023/24, to the levels of the slump of 2019/20.
Wednesday, 15th May 2024
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) released its Economic and Industry Outlook report last Friday forecasting new home building and renovations activity in each state, and across the nation.
“Capacity and productivity constraints continue to hold back any foreseeable recovery in the number of homes built, and the low number of apartment commencements is deeply concerning,” said Michael Roberts, HIA Queensland Executive Director.
“Building Queensland’s share of the 1.2 million homes set as a target will require a healthy mix of detached, multi-res infill and apartment tower dwellings. This needs to be supported by ample greenfield and infill land supply,” Mr Roberts said.
The HIA report forecasts that 19,710 detached homes will commence construction in Queensland in 2023/24, down by 10 per cent compared to the previous year. This would mean that detached commencements will be at their lowest in a decade. This is expected to recover somewhat in the following years to peak in 2026/27 at 23,680.
There are 11,810 multi-unit dwellings forecast to commence construction in Queensland in 2023/24, a reduction of 12.9 per cent compared to the previous year. A recovery is predicted in the years that follow from 14,350 in 2024/25, 18,000 in 2025/26, and 19,930 in 2026/27. Multi-unit commencements could increase towards the end of the decade.
“We will need all cylinders firing in the Queensland home building sector if we are to tackle the housing crisis over the next decade,” Mr Roberts said.
“Without immediate action from government to address labour shortages and low productivity, planning and infrastructure costs and delays, costly ideological regulation and general industry costs, I fear that even these lower new home numbers predicted in the report are unlikely to be achieved.
“Industry conditions for tower builders in particular are incredibly rough at the moment, and our forecasts are largely predicated on the principle of supply and demand, and the hope that many of these current issues will now be resolved as vital action to address the housing crisis,” Mr Roberts said.
For more information please contact:
Mike Roberts
Executive Director – Queensland
Thomas Devitt
HIA Senior Economist