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Above-trend population growth remains driven by elevated net overseas migration.
Net overseas migration (NOM) was 26.3 per cent higher over the 2023 calendar year. The rate of migration did however slow in the December quarter 2023.
This still leaves the estimated resident population around 25,000 people below its pre-pandemic trajectory. This is based on the rate of growth from the decade to 2020.
“The building industry has consistently argued for stable and reliable population growth. The boom/bust cycles in migration seen over the pandemic period leads to undesirable economic, social and business outcomes,” said HIA Chief Economist, Tim Reardon.
“As the main determinant of population growth, the fluctuating nature of NOM has a crucial impact on workforce participation numbers, national skills capacity, productivity and overall economic output,” added Mr Reardon.
“HIA supports a managed migration program that delivers adequate skilled migrants in construction and building professions and trades to meet Australia’s ongoing housing needs.
“HIA estimates that Australia’s future underlying housing demand sits above 200,000 homes per year. Unfortunately, only 172,725 dwellings were completed in the calendar year 2023, This will add to rental and house price pressures.
“The stark demand/supply imbalance in new home building requires significant and swift policy action from all levels of government.
“Up to 50 per cent of a new house and land package is taxes, fees and charges. Reducing these costs is necessary to delivery more homes,” concluded Mr Reardon.
“There were 31,780 loans issued to first home buyers in the final quarter of 2025, up by 6.8 per cent on the previous quarter, and the strongest performance in almost four years,” stated HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt.
The HIA 2026 Small Business Conditions survey shows that while small builders remain resilient, they are facing significant challenges heading into 2026.
The Housing Industry Association (HIA) has reaffirmed its support for the Tasmanian Government’s 2025 decision to expand Greater Hobart’s Urban Growth Boundary (UGB), noting that recent commentary underscores the scale of Tasmania’s housing challenge and the urgent need to bring more land forward for new homes.
Australia’s small businesses are warning that housing supply will continue to fall short of targets unless all tiers of government urgently address rising regulatory costs, planning delays and workforce shortages, according to the Housing Industry Association (HIA) 2026 Small Business Conditions Report.