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Above-trend population growth remains driven by elevated net overseas migration.
Net overseas migration (NOM) was 26.3 per cent higher over the 2023 calendar year. The rate of migration did however slow in the December quarter 2023.
This still leaves the estimated resident population around 25,000 people below its pre-pandemic trajectory. This is based on the rate of growth from the decade to 2020.
“The building industry has consistently argued for stable and reliable population growth. The boom/bust cycles in migration seen over the pandemic period leads to undesirable economic, social and business outcomes,” said HIA Chief Economist, Tim Reardon.
“As the main determinant of population growth, the fluctuating nature of NOM has a crucial impact on workforce participation numbers, national skills capacity, productivity and overall economic output,” added Mr Reardon.
“HIA supports a managed migration program that delivers adequate skilled migrants in construction and building professions and trades to meet Australia’s ongoing housing needs.
“HIA estimates that Australia’s future underlying housing demand sits above 200,000 homes per year. Unfortunately, only 172,725 dwellings were completed in the calendar year 2023, This will add to rental and house price pressures.
“The stark demand/supply imbalance in new home building requires significant and swift policy action from all levels of government.
“Up to 50 per cent of a new house and land package is taxes, fees and charges. Reducing these costs is necessary to delivery more homes,” concluded Mr Reardon.
“Australia’s population reached 27.4 million by the end of 2024, up by 445,900 people, or 1.7 per cent for the year,” stated HIA Senior Economist, Tom Devitt.
The Tasmanian election that no-one wanted to have is in full swing, and while the limited campaign period is unlikely to provide the usual platform to promote key policies and reforms, HIA is calling on both major parties to prioritise housing policies given the significant challenges across the state.
“Our dated and complex planning system is littered with speed bumps that could easily be removed”, said Brad Armitage, HIA NSW Executive Director.
“The Victorian government’s proposal to update home building contract laws to make them fit for use in the 21st century is welcomed by HIA,” stated HIA Executive Director, Keith Ryan.