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{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change locationNew home sales stable in September
New home sales stable in September
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The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“New home sales in the month of September was unchanged compared to August, which leaves sales over the past twelve months higher by 8.6 per cent compared to the previous year,” added Mr Tapang.
“The increase in sales in South Australia, Western Australia and Victoria offset the monthly decline in sales in NSW and Queensland in September.
“Consumer confidence is slowly trickling back into the Australian economy, with the most recent Westpac-Melbourne Institute measure showing the best result in over two years.
“This improvement in consumer confidence will take time to trickle through new home building, as consumers get greater certainty with interest rates and economic conditions.
“Consumers tend to bide their time when it comes to big-ticket purchases, such as buying a new home, especially in a downward cycle.
“Leading indicators of home building activity continue to suggest that the market has already reached its trough sometime in mid-2024, even as NCC changes distort and obscure the data.
“New home sales in South Australia increased by 32.4 per cent compared to August. NCC changes took effect from 1 October 2024 and pulled forward sales into September.
“As was consistent in NSW in September 2023 and Queensland and Victoria in April 2024, this will likely leave a shadow of demand in sales in the months that followed.
“While it remains to be seen, strong demand for housing will likely keep this pull-forward relatively modest, as economic and household conditions improve.
“Strong population growth, low unemployment, real wages growth and the prospect of no further increases to interest rates will drive new home building activity out of the downward cycle,” concluded Mr Tapang.
New home sales in the September quarter 2024 were 3.9 per cent lower compared to the same time in the previous year, which is distorted by the strong pull forward in sales in NSW in September 2023.
Sales in Queensland in the September quarter 2024 rose by 50.2 per cent compared to the same time in the previous year, the strongest annual increase. This was followed by South Australia (+18.5 per cent). The other states recorded declines in sales, led by NSW (-25.5 per cent), followed by Western Australia (-18.4 per cent) and Victoria (-11.7 per cent).
Private New House Sales - Australia (seasonally adjusted)
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Victorian housing lags the smaller states
“Victoria is behind Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia in HIA’s latest Housing Scorecard, reflecting a dramatic change in fortunes over the last five years,” stated HIA Executive Director Victoria, Keith Ryan.
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“The outlook for home building in South Australia has taken a marked step up in recent years, as economic and policy dynamics increasingly shift in the state’s favour,” stated HIA Senior Economist Tom Devitt.