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The HIA New Home Sales report is a monthly survey of the largest volume home builders in the five largest states and is a leading indicator of future detached home construction.
“While January 2025 produced an encouraging bounce in new home sales - it is a rise off a very low base,” added Mr Armitage.
“New home sales in New South Wales in the three months to January 2025 were up by 17.7 per cent compared to the previous three-month period, however compared with the corresponding three-month period in 2020 they were down 38 per cent.
“Detached house building approvals in New South Wales fell by 4.8 per cent in the 2024 calendar year. Low levels of new home sales and weak approvals do not bode well for housing starts in the states in 2025.
“On current trajectory, NSW will fall short of its National Housing Accord 5-year target by approximately 124,000 homes. That would be a tragedy to say the least.
“HIA members and the broader industry are ready to deliver the number of homes we need over 2024-2029, but they are constrained by insufficient Greenfield land supply, excessive new home building taxation, a costly and inefficient planning system and poor policy decisions.
“For example, Friday's announcement on stage 2 of the low- to mid-rise policy (dual occupancies around transport and town centres), was a scaling back of what was initially announced. Only 171 sites are earmarked for this kind of development and only up to an 800-metre radius. This is a missed opportunity to build more homes.
“If we don't pull out all stops on the rollout of widespread low- to mid-rise housing, new home building activity and housing affordability will struggle to escape the present quagmire,” concluded Mr Armitage.
Workplace laws are set for more changes in 2026.
Australia’s residential building industry has entered the new year with confidence still on shaky ground for small businesses as rising costs and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.
Tasmania’s housing market slowed in November, with building approvals falling sharply compared to October. Approvals for new homes dropped almost 20 per cent, and even after seasonal adjustment, the decline was 5.8 per cent.
Australia’s home building industry is expected to strengthen through 2026, supported by gradually improving building approvals and a recovery in demand, but the pace of growth will ultimately depend on how quickly interest rates can fall further, according to the Housing Industry Association.