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{{propApi.successMessage}} {{region}} Change locationWorking toward building 1.2 million homes
Working toward building 1.2 million homes
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The Housing Industry Association (HIA) recently released its quarterly Housing and Economic Outlook Report, covering forecasts for residential building activity across Australia. This HIA Outlook has revised the forecast for the number of new homes to commence construction in the five years to June 2029 from 986,000 to 1.01 million considering recent policy decisions.
“Higher than previously anticipated population growth, and changes to government policy, have resulted in an upgrade to our forecasts for the number of homes that will commence construction over the next five years,” added Mr Reardon.
“Despite the upgrade in the Outlook, policy settings remain too restrictive to achieve the goal of 1.2 million new homes over the next five years.
“The decline in the cash rate has seen home building activity pick up, but this improvement is not evenly spread across regions or building types as government policies remain the main determinant of the volume of home building.
“Indications are that Australia’s population growth will remain elevated and exceed 30 million before the end of 2030. This will force up the price of established homes and increasingly see new home construction as a cheaper alternative to purchasing an established home.
“Changes to government policies are starting to focus on reducing the costs and barriers to new home building and will add further to the supply of new homes.
“In this Outlook there is an upgrade to the forecast number of homes to commence construction in New South Wales due to recent changes announced in this year’s state Budget. A plan for the government to underwrite apartment sales, the pattern book and fast-tracking approvals will have a tangible uplift in commencements in New South Wales over the next few years.
“The announcement by the Australian Government to lower the cost of Lenders Mortgage Insurance (5 per cent deposit) will also see an ongoing increase in first home buyers building a new home. This policy could add as much as 10,000 new homes, per year, to supply. Further reform of macro-prudential restrictions introduced since the GFC also warrant review and could add further to the supply of new homes.
“Home building activity will flow to those regions with the lower cost of delivering new homes to market.
“For this reason, home building activity increased first in Western Australia, South Australia and Queensland. New South Wales and Victoria remain laggards given the significantly higher cost of land and home supply in those states.
“Upside risks could emerge in other regions if governments remove constraints on new home supply.
“Interest rates will remain the most significant cyclical factor affecting new home building volumes. Structural factors such as population flows and policy decisions will determine which regions capitalise on this opportunity,” concluded Mr Reardon.
Forecasts:
Detached houses: There were 28,620 detached houses that commenced construction in the March quarter 2025, with a similar 28,240 forecast for the June quarter, working its way back up to 29,470 by the final quarter of 2025. This will produce a 2025 calendar year total of 115,070 detached house starts, 7.2 per cent up on 2024. A steady improvement is expected to continue from here, reaching a 2027 peak of 125,840, before moderating back to 116,370 in 2029 as land constraints become more binding and new multi-units become relatively more affordable.
Multi-unit dwellings: There were 19,450 multi-unit dwellings that commenced construction in the March quarter 2025, which is expected to moderate back down to 17,440 in the June quarter and remain relatively steady for the rest of the year. This will produce a 2025 calendar year total of 72,070, up by 17.2 per cent on 2024’s 13-year low. A modest further improvement is expected to 76,570 in 2026, before accelerating towards 96,910 by 2028 and 99,960 in 2029, as rising prices in the established market catalyse the feasibility of new apartment projects.
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