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HIA’s recent Affordability Report revealed that housing across the country is still around its least affordable in HIA’s data back to the mid-1990s.
Even with the boost to borrowing power thanks to recent interest rate cuts, it still takes 1.7 average incomes to comfortably service a mortgage on a median priced dwelling in Australia, when an ‘affordable’ home should require only one average income .
Moreover, dwelling prices have started re-accelerating on the back of these rate cuts, plus ongoing population growth, a well-employed workforce, and increasingly binding land constraints across the country.
This implies affordability is set to worsen even further in 2026 and beyond.
The Australian Financial Review article (13 January 2026) “Wind back capital gains tax break, Labor told” rests on a fundamental misdiagnosis of Australia’s housing challenge.
Australia’s housing market is increasingly defined by a structural imbalance between strong underlying demand and persistently weak supply. While much of the policy focus has rightly centred on planning systems, land supply, infrastructure charging, and construction costs, taxation settings affecting housing investment have become a growing focus of public debate. Negative gearing and capital gains tax discount are frequently cited as primary drivers of housing affordability pressures.
Australia’s housing affordability crisis is set to get even worse. This means the ‘catch up’ required will get even bigger.
There’s some good news that has flown under the radar in recent months with all the talk of inflation, interest rates and international developments around tariffs, trade wars and actual wars – and that is building costs.