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Many of the factors on the left are similar to – if not worse than – the conditions that prevailed before the pandemic, resulting in much lower inflation and interest rates than today. Remember in late 2019, before anyone had heard about COVID-19, the RBA’s cash rate was at just 0.75 per cent and inflation wasn’t even able to sustain 2 per cent.
And yet, inflation and interest rates are persisting at so much more elevated levels than before, because the factors on the left are being completely over-powered by the factors on the right.
The RBA’s decision this week following the recent resurgence of inflation highlights the dangerous dichotomy of Australia’s economy: households and businesses vs government.
Australia does need more social housing.
Australia faces a persistent and growing housing supply shortfall. Population growth has accelerated, while the delivery of new homes has failed to keep pace. This report examines the role of foreign investor taxes and regulations in contributing to that imbalance and finds that these policies have materially constrained new housing supply while delivering uncertain and potentially negative, revenue outcomes.
The Australian Financial Review article (13 January 2026) “Wind back capital gains tax break, Labor told” rests on a fundamental misdiagnosis of Australia’s housing challenge.