“All the economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown in the commencement of new homes. Since the first increase in the cash rate, sales of new homes have fallen sharply and are 41.8 per cent lower than at the same time last year and 26.2 per cent lower than at the same time in 2019.

“Loans for the construction and purchase of new homes are down by 31.1 per cent over the year. Building approvals have started to fall and are now 13.5 per cent lower than at the same time last year.

“We forecast that in 2024, the number of new homes commencing construction will reach its lowest volume since 2012, when the RBA last increased the cash rate significantly. This will also be one of the lowest volumes of new home starts in the past 30 years. This is contrary to the Australian government’s goal of building more than one million homes over the next five years,” Ms Martin said.

“The housing supply problem is complex and requires a coordinated approach across all levels of government. The current figures demonstrate we are falling further and further behind in addressing the need. Adjusting one part of the sector and thinking that it will have a positive impact on another part of the sector is naïve. We need an approach that looks across the complete spectrum of housing, social, home ownership and investing, and brings in all tiers of government.

The Housing Australia Future Fund Bill 2023 does place important mechanisms to invest more on social housing. But the Bill doesn't stop there, they provide the impetus to bring Federal, State and Local governments together to address planning issues and improve the quality of housing data so that investment is where it is most needed. It sets up all levels of government to be accountable for change, investment and most importantly results.

“The Bill is not the complete answer to address housing supply. No one thing is. But they are an essential step in putting key decision makers on the same page and accountable. It allows for the possibility that issues of rental affordability, investment and the supply of new homes can be addressed as a whole instead.

“The figures speak for themselves. There is no purpose in debating issues around rental affordability if there are no homes for people to rent in the first place,” Ms Martin said.

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